Kalshi Research examines how prediction markets can improve macroeconomic forecasting by providing real-time, distributionally rich expectations. Fed economists evaluated Kalshi’s forecasts against traditional surveys and market measures, finding these markets offer high-frequency updates valuable to researchers and policymakers. Kalshi’s Citizen Debt Forecast (CDF) continuously incorporates market-implied legislative expectations, showing slightly more optimistic debt projections than the CBO’s semiannual baseline.
